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President Putin's Middle East gambit


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Russian President Vladimir Putin's two-day trip to Israel and the Palestinian territories may be brief but it is full of symbolism.

Mr Putin will unveil a memorial to Russian soldiers of the Second World War at the coastal city of Netanya, a little north of Tel Aviv.

This marks the contribution of Russian troops to the defeat of Nazism. More than a million Russian Jews now live in Israel; Netanya itself has a significant Russian community.

Many of Israel's Russian immigrants retain links with their former country but few analysts believe that the Russian president has much to gain in domestic political terms from this visit.

Its significance comes more from its timing.

Mr Putin has re-gained the Russian presidency, the Middle East is in turmoil in the wake of the Arab Spring and Russia's close ties with Syria and Iran are proving problematic.

Hence the trip to Israel and the Palestinian territories will enable Russia to present a different facet of its Middle East policy.

 

New challenges

Russian foreign policy expert, Dmitri Trenin, Director of the Carnegie Endowment's Moscow Centre, says that in fact Vladimir Putin has a pretty close relationship with Israeli officials.

Indeed he describes him as "the most pro-Israeli Russian President since the end of Soviet Union".

"He wants Russia to be a player in the region. Given all the turmoil at the moment, Israel looks like the only place that it makes sense for Mr Putin to visit," says Mr Trenin.

"The Palestinian leg should also enhance Russia's prestige - Russia still has hopes of one day staging a Middle East Peace conference," he adds.

"It is member of the Middle East diplomatic steering group the Quartet, and it cares about how it is perceived."

Zvi Magen, a former Israeli ambassador to Russia and now a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, says that President Putin's visit comes at a time when there is a reshuffling of power in the region.

"Russia is now viewing the Middle East as a cause of trouble," he says.

"Russia is finding itself challenged by the Islamists' rising power and is feeling isolated in the Arab world."

"The ouster of the secular regimes and their replacement by Islamists raises concern in Moscow," Mr Magen argues, "with the Kremlin fearing the events of the Arab Spring might inspire similar developments in Russia's soft belly - the Caucasus - and also inside its own territory."

In his view Russia has been "side-lined" into the role of a defender of the Shia camp.

"In addition, it views the geo-political activities of Turkey with some suspicion," he says.

 

A Fine Balance

In this new reality, Zvi Magen believes, part of Russia's interest is in changing its Middle East policy to seek out new partners.

Dmitri Trenin echoes this view, arguing that Russian foreign policy in general is in a constant state of balancing and re-balancing.

Mr Trenin discounts the idea that there are any domestic benefits for President Putin in this visit.

Though genuinely friendly towards the Jewish people, Mr Putin "values Israeli assessments of what is going on in the region, especially in Syria," Mr Trenin says.

"Mr Putin knows many Israeli leaders well - that cannot be said of his relations with many leaders in the Arab world," he notes.

Indeed, Mr Trenin asserts that the perceptions of Russia's closeness to the Assad regime in Damascus is not doing Mr Putin any favours in the region.

"Russia is on the map in Syria in quite the wrong way, so a visit to Israel may help to counterbalance that," he says.

Mr Magen agrees that inevitably Syria will be high on the agenda at this meeting.

Syria, he says, "is the most important Russian regional partner.

"Moscow sees it as an strategic base and also as a gateway to Iran. Together, they comprise Russia's anti-Western axis."

The former Israeli ambassador to Moscow believes though that there is some flexibility in the Russian position and that discussions in Israel could help to shift Russian positions on the Syrian crisis.

 

Red-button issues

Iran's nuclear programme will also be high on the agenda.

Russia has gone along with UN Security Council sanctions resolutions against Iran but seems unwilling to push these further.

Moscow insists upon a diplomatic resolution to the row with Tehran. Mr Putin will be eager to impress upon his Israeli hosts the need to refrain from military action.

The Israelis will be telling him that only tougher sanctions can keep up the diplomatic pressure on Tehran.

Beyond the red-button issues in international diplomacy, bilateral economic ties between Israel and Russia will also be discussed.

As Dmitri Trenin notes, technologically, "Israel a very advanced country. It is a major modernisation partner for Russia given that so many Israeli scientists speak Russian and come from Russia - this is one way to enhance relations."

Mr Magen points to Russia's growing interest in the energy fields off Israel's coast, something that could eventually develop into a multilateral relationship involving other Mediterranean countries, for example Cyprus.

The current instability in the Middle East prompts a cautious stance on the part of Moscow. But it is clear that this is something of a hinge moment for Russia.

Its old partnerships are under pressure or very much in decline. New relationships beckon but these are early days yet.

 

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SocialAction 2E ChangeMoveType 2F ChangeWaitType 30 ManagePledgePower 31 CreatePledge 32 AskJoinPledge 33 JoinPledge 34 WithdrawalPledge 35 OustPledgeMember 36 SetOustPledgeMember 37 DismissPledge 38 SetDismissPledge 39 AskJoinParty 3A JoinParty 3B WithdrawalParty 3C OustPartyMember 3D SetOustPartyMember 3E DismissParty 3F SetDismissParty 40 UserAck 41 WareHouseDepositList 42 WareHouseWithdrawList 43 WareHouseDone 44 ShortCutRegister 45 ShortCutInit 46 ShortCutDelete 47 StopMove 48 MagicSkillUse 49 MagicSkillCanceled 4A Say2 4B EquipUpdate 4C DoorInfo 4D DoorStatusUpdate 4E PartySmallWindowAll 4F PartySmallWindowAdd 50 PartySmallWindowDeleteAll 51 PartySmallWindowDelete 52 PartySmallWindowUpdate 53 PledgeShowMemberListAll 54 PledgeShowMemberListUpdate 55 PledgeShowMemberListAdd 56 PledgeShowMemberListDelete 57 MagicList 58 SkillList 59 VehicleInfo 5A VehicleDeparture 5B VehicleCheckLocation 5C GetOnVehicle 5D GetOffVehicle 5E TradeRequest 5F RestartResponse 60 MoveToPawn 61 ValidateLocation 62 StartRotating 63 FinishRotating 64 SystemMessage 65 StartPledgeWar 66 ReplyStartPledgeWar 67 StopPledgeWar 68 ReplyStopPledgeWar 69 SurrenderPledgeWar 6A ReplySurrenderPledgeWar 6B SetPledgeCrest 6C PledgeCrest 6D SetupGauge 6E ShowBoard 6F ChooseInventoryItem 70 Dummy_70 71 MoveToLocationInVehicle 72 StopMoveInVehicle 73 ValidateLocationInVehicle 74 TradeUpdate 75 TradePressOwnOk 76 MagicSkillLaunched 77 FriendAddRequestResult 78 FriendAdd 79 FriendRemove 7A FriendList 7B FriendStatus 7C TradePressOtherOk 7D FriendAddRequest 7E LogOutOk 7F AbnormalStatusUpdate 80 QuestList 81 EnchantResult 82 PledgeShowMemberListDeleteAll 83 PledgeInfo 84 PledgeExtendedInfo 85 SurrenderPersonally 86 Ride 87 GiveNickNameDone 88 PledgeShowInfoUpdate 89 ClientAction 8A AcquireSkillList 8B AcquireSkillInfo 8C ServerObjectInfo 8D GMHide 8E AcquireSkillDone 8F GMViewCharacterInfo 90 GMViewPledgeInfo 91 GMViewSkillInfo 92 GMViewMagicInfo 93 GMViewQuestInfo 94 GMViewItemList 95 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ExMailArrived FE:2E ExStorageMaxCount FE:2F ExEventMatchManage FE:30 ExMultiPartyCommandChannelInfo FE:31 ExPCCafePointInfo FE:32 ExSetCompassZoneCode FE:33 ExGetBossRecord FE:34 ExAskJoinPartyRoom FE:35 ExListPartyMatchingWaitingRoom FE:36 ExSetMpccRouting FE:37 ExShowAdventurerGuideBook FE:38 ExShowScreenMessage FE:39 PledgeSkillList FE:3A PledgeSkillListAdd FE:3B PledgePowerGradeList FE:3C PledgeReceivePowerInfo FE:3D PledgeReceiveMemberInfo FE:3E PledgeReceiveWarList FE:3F PledgeReceiveSubPledgeCreated FE:40 ExRedSky FE:41 PledgeReceiveUpdatePower FE:42 FlySelfDestination FE:43 ShowPCCafeCouponShowUI FE:44 ExSearchOrc FE:45 ExCursedWeaponList FE:46 ExCursedWeaponLocation FE:47 ExRestartClient FE:48 ExRequestHackShield FE:49 ExUseSharedGroupItem FE:4A ExMPCCShowPartyMemberInfo FE:4B ExDuelAskStart FE:4C ExDuelReady FE:4D ExDuelStart FE:4E ExDuelEnd FE:4F ExDuelUpdateUserInfo FE:50 ExShowVariationMakeWindow FE:51 ExShowVariationCancelWindow FE:52 ExPutItemResultForVariationMake FE:53 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RequestWithDrawalPledge 27 RequestOustPledgeMember 28 RequestDismissPledge 29 RequestJoinParty 2A RequestAnswerJoinParty 2B RequestWithDrawalParty 2C RequestOustPartyMember 2D RequestDismissParty 2E UserAck 2F RequestMagicSkillUse 30 SendAppearing 31 SendWareHouseDepositList 32 SendWareHouseWithdrawList 33 RequestShortCutReg 34 RequestShortCutUse 35 RequestShortCutDel 36 CanNotMoveAnymore 37 RequestTargetCancel 38 Say2 3C RequestPledgeMemberList 3E RequestMagicList 3F RequestSkillList 41 MoveWithDelta 42 GetOnVehicle 43 GetOffVehicle 44 AnswerTradeRequest 45 RequestActionUse 46 RequestRestart 47 RequestSiegeInfo 48 ValidateLocation 49 RequestSEKCustom 4A StartRotating 4B FinishRotating 4D RequestStartPledgeWar 4E RequestReplyStartPledgeWar 4F RequestStopPledgeWar 50 RequestReplyStopPledgeWar 51 RequestSurrenderPledgeWar 52 RequestReplySurrenderPledgeWar 53 RequestSetPledgeCrest 55 RequestGiveNickName 57 RequestShowboard 58 RequestEnchantItem 59 RequestDestroyItem 5B SendBypassBuildCmd 5C MoveToLocationInVehicle 5D CanNotMoveAnymore(Vehicle) 5E RequestFriendInvite 5F RequestFriendAddReply 60 RequestFriendInfoList 61 RequestFriendDel 62 RequestCharacterRestore 63 RequestQuestList 64 RequestDestroyQuest 66 RequestPledgeInfo 67 RequestPledgeExtendedInfo 68 RequestPledgeCrest 69 RequestSurrenderPersonally 6A RequestRide 6B RequestAcquireSkillInfo 6C RequestAcquireSkill 6D RequestRestartPoint 6E RequestGMCommand 6F RequestListPartyWaiting 70 RequestManagePartyRoom 71 RequestJoinPartyRoom 72 RequestCrystallizeItem 73 RequestPrivateStoreSellManageList 74 SetPrivateStoreSellList 75 RequestPrivateStoreSellManageCancel 76 RequestPrivateStoreSellQuit 77 SetPrivateStoreSellMsg 79 SendPrivateStoreBuyList 7A RequestReviveReply 7B RequestTutorialLinkHtml 7C RequestTutorialPassCmdToServer 7D RequestTutorialQuestionMarkPressed 7E RequestTutorialClientEvent 7F RequestPetition 80 RequestPetitionCancel 81 RequestGMList 82 RequestJoinAlly 83 RequestAnswerJoinAlly 84 RequestWithdrawAlly 85 RequestOustAlly 86 RequestDismissAlly 87 RequestSetAllyCrest 88 RequestAllyCrest 89 RequestChangePetName 8A RequestPetUseItem 8B RequestGiveItemToPet 8C RequestGetItemFromPet 8E RequestAllyInfo 8F RequestPetGetItem 90 RequestPrivateStoreBuyManageList 91 SetPrivateStoreBuyList 93 RequestPrivateStoreBuyManageQuit 94 SetPrivateStoreBuyMsg 96 SendPrivateStoreSellList 97 SendTimeCheck 98 RequestStartAllianceWar 99 ReplyStartAllianceWar 9A RequestStopAllianceWar 9B ReplyStopAllianceWar 9C RequestSurrenderAllianceWar 9D RequestSkillCoolTime 9E RequestPackageSendableItemList 9F RequestPackageSend A0 RequestBlock A1 RequestCastleSiegeInfo A2 RequestCastleSiegeAttackerList A3 RequestCastleSiegeDefenderList A4 RequestJoinCastleSiege A5 RequestConfirmCastleSiegeWaitingList A6 RequestSetCastleSiegeTime A7 RequestMultiSellChoose A8 NetPing A9 RequestRemainTime AA BypassUserCmd AB GMSnoopEnd AC RequestRecipeBookOpen AD RequestRecipeItemDelete AE RequestRecipeItemMakeInfo AF RequestRecipeItemMakeSelf B0 RequestRecipeShopManageList B1 RequestRecipeShopMessageSet B2 RequestRecipeShopListSet B3 RequestRecipeShopManageQuit B4 RequestRecipeShopManageCancel B5 RequestRecipeShopMakeInfo B6 RequestRecipeShopMakeDo B7 RequestRecipeShopSellList B8 RequestObserverEnd B9 VoteSociality BA RequestHennaItemList BB RequestHennaItemInfo BC RequestHennaEquip BD RequestHennaUnequipList BE RequestHennaUnequipInfo BF RequestHennaUnequip C0 RequestPledgePower C1 RequestMakeMacro C2 RequestDeleteMacro C3 RequestProcureCrop C4 RequestBuySeed C5 ConfirmDlg C6 RequestPreviewItem C7 RequestSSQStatus C8 PetitionVote CA ReplyGameGuardQuery CC RequestSendL2FriendSay CD RequestOpenMinimap CE RequestSendMsnChatLog CF RequestReload D0:01 RequestOustFromPartyRoom D0:02 RequestDismissPartyRoom D0:03 RequestWithdrawPartyRoom D0:04 RequestHandOverPartyMaster D0:05 RequestAutoSoulShot D0:06 RequestExEnchantSkillInfo D0:07 RequestExEnchantSkill D0:08 RequestManorList D0:09 RequestProcureCropList D0:0A RequestSetSeed D0:0B RequestSetCrop D0:0C RequestWriteHeroWords D0:0D RequestExAskJoinMPCC D0:0E RequestExAcceptJoinMPCC D0:0F RequestExOustFromMPCC D0:10 RequestExPledgeCrestLarge D0:11 RequestExSetPledgeCrestLarge D0:12 RequestOlympiadObserverEnd D0:13 RequestOlympiadMatchList Server 00 VersionCheck 01 MoveToLocation 02 NpcSay 03 CharInfo 04 UserInfo 05 Attack 06 Die 07 Revive 08 AttackOutofRange 09 AttackinCoolTime 0A AttackDeadTarget 0B SpawnItem 0C DropItem 0D GetItem 0E StatusUpdate 0F NpcHtmlMessage 10 SellList 11 BuyList 12 DeleteObject 13 CharacterSelectionInfo 14 LoginFail 15 CharacterSelected 16 NpcInfo 17 NewCharacterSuccess 18 NewCharacterFail 19 CharacterCreateSuccess 1A CharacterCreateFail 1B ItemList 1C SunRise 1D SunSet 1E TradeStart 1F TradeStartOk 20 TradeOwnAdd 21 TradeOtherAdd 22 TradeDone 23 CharacterDeleteSuccess 24 CharacterDeleteFail 25 ActionFail 26 ServerClose 27 InventoryUpdate 28 TeleportToLocation 29 TargetSelected 2A TargetUnselected 2B AutoAttackStart 2C AutoAttackStop 2D SocialAction 2E ChangeMoveType 2F ChangeWaitType 30 ManagePledgePower 31 CreatePledge 32 AskJoinPledge 33 JoinPledge 34 WithdrawalPledge 35 OustPledgeMember 36 SetOustPledgeMember 37 DismissPledge 38 SetDismissPledge 39 AskJoinParty 3A JoinParty 3B WithdrawalParty 3C OustPartyMember 3D SetOustPartyMember 3E DismissParty 3F SetDismissParty 40 UserAck 41 WareHouseDepositList 42 WareHouseWithdrawList 43 WareHouseDone 44 ShortCutRegister 45 ShortCutInit 46 ShortCutDelete 47 StopMove 48 MagicSkillUse 49 MagicSkillCanceled 4A Say2 4B EquipUpdate 4C DoorInfo 4D DoorStatusUpdate 4E PartySmallWindowAll 4F PartySmallWindowAdd 50 PartySmallWindowDeleteAll 51 PartySmallWindowDelete 52 PartySmallWindowUpdate 53 PledgeShowMemberListAll 54 PledgeShowMemberListUpdate 55 PledgeShowMemberListAdd 56 PledgeShowMemberListDelete 57 MagicList 58 SkillList 59 VehicleInfo 5A VehicleDeparture 5B VehicleCheckLocation 5C GetOnVehicle 5D GetOffVehicle 5E TradeRequest 5F RestartResponse 60 MoveToPawn 61 ValidateLocation 62 StartRotating 63 FinishRotating 64 SystemMessage 65 StartPledgeWar 66 ReplyStartPledgeWar 67 StopPledgeWar 68 ReplyStopPledgeWar 69 SurrenderPledgeWar 6A ReplySurrenderPledgeWar 6B SetPledgeCrest 6C PledgeCrest 6D SetupGauge 6E ShowBoard 6F ChooseInventoryItem 70 Dummy_70 71 MoveToLocationInVehicle 72 StopMoveInVehicle 73 ValidateLocationInVehicle 74 TradeUpdate 75 TradePressOwnOk 76 MagicSkillLaunched 77 FriendAddRequestResult 78 FriendAdd 79 FriendRemove 7A FriendList 7B FriendStatus 7C TradePressOtherOk 7D FriendAddRequest 7E LogOutOk 7F AbnormalStatusUpdate 80 QuestList 81 EnchantResult 82 PledgeShowMemberListDeleteAll 83 PledgeInfo 84 PledgeExtendedInfo 85 SurrenderPersonally 86 Ride 87 GiveNickNameDone 88 PledgeShowInfoUpdate 89 ClientAction 8A AcquireSkillList 8B AcquireSkillInfo 8C ServerObjectInfo 8D GMHide 8E AcquireSkillDone 8F GMViewCharacterInfo 90 GMViewPledgeInfo 91 GMViewSkillInfo 92 GMViewMagicInfo 93 GMViewQuestInfo 94 GMViewItemList 95 GMViewWarehouseWithdrawList 96 ListPartyWaiting 97 PartyRoomInfo 98 PlaySound 99 StaticObject 9A PrivateStoreSellManageList 9B PrivateStoreSellList 9C PrivateStoreSellMsg 9D ShowMinimap 9E ReviveRequest 9F AbnormalVisualEffect A0 TutorialShowHtml A1 ShowTutorialMark A2 TutorialEnableClientEvent A3 TutorialCloseHtml A4 ShowRadar A5 DeleteRadar A6 MyTargetSelected A7 PartyMemberPosition A8 AskJoinAlliance A9 JoinAlliance AA WithdrawAlliance AB OustAllianceMemberPledge AC DismissAlliance AD SetAllianceCrest AE AllianceCrest AF ServerCloseSocket B0 PetStatusShow B1 PetInfo B2 PetItemList B3 PetInventoryUpdate B4 AllianceInfo B5 PetStatusUpdate B6 PetDelete B7 PrivateStoreBuyManageList B8 PrivateStoreBuyList B9 PrivateStoreBuyMsg BA VehicleStart BB RequestTimeCheck BC StartAllianceWar BD ReplyStartAllianceWar BE StopAllianceWar BF ReplyStopAllianceWar C0 SurrenderAllianceWar C1 SkillCoolTime C2 PackageToList C3 PackageSendableList C4 EarthQuake C5 FlyToLocation C6 BlockList C7 SpecialCamera C8 NormalCamera C9 CastleSiegeInfo CA CastleSiegeAttackerList CB CastleSiegeDefenderList CC NickNameChanged CD PledgeStatusChanged CE RelationChanged CF EventTrigger D0 MultiSellList D1 SetSummonRemainTime D2 SkillRemainSec D3 NetPing D4 Dice D5 Snoop D6 RecipeBookItemList D7 RecipeItemMakeInfo D8 RecipeShopManageList D9 RecipeShopSellList DA RecipeShopItemInfo DB RecipeShopMsg DC ShowCalc DD MonRaceInfo DE ShowTownMap DF ObserverStart E0 ObserverEnd E1 ChairSit E2 HennaEquipList E3 HennaItemInfo E4 HennaInfo E5 HennaUnequipList E6 HennaUnequipInfo E7 MacroList E8 BuyListSeed E9 SellListProcure EA GMHennaInfo EB RadarControl EC ClientSetTime ED ConfirmDlg EE PartySpelled EF ShopPreviewList F0 ShopPreviewInfo F1 CameraMode F2 ShowXMasSeal F3 EtcStatusUpdate F4 ShortBuffStatusUpdate F5 SSQStatus F6 PetitionVote F7 AgitDecoInfo F8 SSQInfo F9 GameGuardQuery FA L2FriendList FB L2Friend FC L2FriendStatus FD L2FriendSay FE:01 ExRegenMax FE:02 ExEventMatchList FE:03 ExEventMatchObserver FE:04 ExEventMatchMessage FE:05 ExEventMatchScore FE:06 ExEventMatchTeamInfo FE:07 ExEventMatchCreate FE:08 ExEventMatchUserInfo FE:09 ExColosseumFenceInfo FE:0A ExEventMatchSpelledInfo FE:0B ExEventMatchFirecracker FE:0C ExEventMatchTeamUnlocked FE:0D ExEventMatchGMTest FE:0E ExPartyRoomMember FE:0F ExClosePartyRoom FE:10 ExManagePartyRoomMember FE:11 ExEventMatchLockResult FE:12 ExAutoSoulShot FE:13 ExFishingStart FE:14 ExFishingEnd FE:15 ExFishingStartCombat FE:16 ExFishingHpRegen FE:17 ExEnchantSkillList FE:18 ExEnchantSkillInfo FE:19 ExShowQuestInfo FE:1A ExShowQuestMark FE:1B ExSendManorList FE:1C ExShowSeedInfo FE:1D ExShowCropInfo FE:1E ExShowManorDefaultInfo FE:1F ExShowSeedSetting FE:20 ExShowCropSetting FE:21 ExShowSellCropList FE:22 ExShowProcureCropDetail FE:23 ExHeroList FE:24 ExServerPrimitive FE:25 ExOpenMPCC FE:26 ExCloseMPCC FE:27 ExAskJoinMPCC FE:28 ExPledgeEmblem FE:29 ExOlympiadUserInfo FE:2A ExOlympiadSpelledInfo FE:2B ExOlympiadMode FE:2C ExOlympiadMatchEnd FE:2D ExMailArrived FE:2E ExStorageMaxCount FE:2F ExEventMatchManage FE:30 ExMultiPartyCommandChannelInfo FE:31 ExPCCafePointInfo   maybe an exmaple:    
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